14th World Conference on Transport Research - Shanghaï 2016
10.07.2016 - 15.07.2016
Intervention de Laurent Guihéry et Geneviève Zembri à la World Conference on Transport Research de Shanghaï
"Liberalisation of intercity coach market in Germany and France: New trends, bottlenecks and impact on the european integration"
Following, with some delays, the UK which has a long experience in bus transport and competition, both intermodal with rail and private cars but also intramodal, but also Germany which is implementing rapidly wide interurban bus networks, competing with DB, France has announced in January 2015 the launch of a reform in this direction.
The objectives are to increase the passenger transport supply and connections, decrease prices in transport, first between cities that have no railway link but, rapidly we think, on a wide interurban level. The situation is complex as SNCF has already taken a leading market position in this sector with ID-Bus. It will be interesting to see what supply, pricing, marketing and strategies newcomers on the market will implement. Aim in the paper is to give a first idea of the market share of newcomer on the French bus market.
Data and methodology
In a long tradition of German - French benchmarking, we will first assess the first results of the German reform : in Germany, since the opening in 2013, the supply of passenger transport has doubled since between 2012 and 2013, measured in terms of frequencies and kilometers. Let's see first if the condition of success, at the start period, are the same with Germany.
On the level of prices, in Germany, in 2013, first year of the opening of interurban bus services, the price for one bus travel was a little bit less than 15 euros for 100 km. By trains, the level of price was 30 euros for 100 km. We will then try to analyse the impacts on travel prices.
The next section will investigate the business situation of Starshipper, a community of private bus operator in Rhône-Alpes region and newcomer on the market, which has developed bus operation between Lyon and Torino with cabotage in Chambery.
In the conclusion, we will try to assess the expected results of the opening to competition of interurban buses in France, both in terms of actors (intramodal competition) but also in terms of intermodal competition (with rail and private car) competition
"Planning transport infrastructures in an uncertain context. Analysis and limits to contemporary planning in France"
Transport infrastructure (HSL, airport, highways, and so on) are planned in France with a national master plan (Mobilité 21) and the Contrat de projet Etat-Région. Masterplan implementation have met difficulties for two decades because of the ambition of the national planning, difficulties of concertation, evolution of environmental rules, financial risks, different political objectives, and so on.
The objective of this proposition are :
- to explain how the transport infrastructures are planned in France since the masterplans of 1994 and the Mobilité 21 Report of 2013.
- to explain the integration of social risks, financial risks and environmental risks in planning issues and practices.
- to do a diagnosis of the implementation of the masterplan (objectives achieved or not and infrastructures finished or not).
- to analyse the reasons which could explain that certain objectives and certain infrastructures have not been yet implemented.
Data and methodology
The methodology is divided into three points :
- the history of the planning practices since the masterplan of 1994 and the integration of risks in national planning is based on the study of archives and public records of the french Transport Ministry, Réseau ferré de France and the study of laws regarding mega projects planning.
- The diagnosis of implementation of the masterplan of 1994 and the Mobilité 21 Report is based on the comparison between the social, economic, environmental objectives of the masterplan and the results achieved and a comparison between the objectives of the national projects and their results (saving of time, costs, jobs creation, modal transfer, traffic forecast, environmental objectives, etc).
- The analysis of the reasons of the success or unsuccess of the masterplan is based on interviews with selected practitioners of the french Transport Ministry.
The expected results will analysis :
- which objectives of transport planning are more achieved and which are not.
- if multiple objectives are a source of unsuccess for transport planning
- the role of risks integration in transport planning in the success of the masterplan.